Fifty-one countries said they opposed this arrangement in April. It is being finalised.
A Strait of Hormuz transit arrangement between Iran and Oman is in final drafting, and under it large parts of the shipping route run through Iranian territorial waters. In April, France and the United Kingdom convened 51 countries who stated their opposition to any agreement regime amounting to a de-facto privatisation of the strait. The multinational mission announced at that summit has not sailed, and the statement announcing it explains why.
Two things are happening at once in the Strait of Hormuz, and they are usually reported separately. A transit arrangement is being drafted between Iran and Oman. And a 51-country statement from April sets out, in terms, what those countries said they would not accept.
Read together, they describe the same stretch of water and they do not agree.
What Iran says has been agreed
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told reporters on Wednesday 5 August that talks with Oman had been under way for two months with the aim of determining a safe transit route for commercial shipping.
“The geographical coordinates of the route proposed by the two sides have been agreed upon, and provided that certain third parties do not obstruct the process, the joint statement by the two countries, incorporating the main considerations and points of agreement, is also in the final stage of review and drafting.”
Confirmed Esmaeil Baghaei, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, 5 August 2026, reported by Al Jazeera and Reuters. Named and quoted directly. A statement by an interested government about its own position.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, told the state news agency IRNA the same day that an understanding had been reached on almost all issues, including the location of entry and exit routes.
| Element of the arrangement, as described by Iran | Stated |
|---|---|
| Where the route runs | Large parts through Iran’s territorial waters, some parts through Oman’s |
| Existing temporary routes | Would be closed |
| Duration of the new route | Two to four months, or potentially longer |
| Status of the joint statement | Final stage of review and drafting |
Unconfirmed Kazem Gharibabadi to IRNA, 5 August 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera. The official is named and the account is his own. No text of the arrangement has been published by either government.
What 51 countries said in April
On 17 April 2026 France and the United Kingdom convened an international summit on the Strait of Hormuz. The joint statement issued by President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Keir Starmer records that 51 countries were convened, and lists 23 further states that confirmed after publication that they had joined it. Canada is among them.
The statement calls for “the unconditional, unrestricted and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” and says the right of transit passage without restrictions or tolls is the bedrock of international trade. In remarks given alongside it, Macron was more specific about what was being rejected.
“We all oppose any restriction, any agreement regime that would amount to a de-facto attempt to privatize the strait, and obviously any toll system.”
Confirmed President Emmanuel Macron, Paris, 17 April 2026, published by the French foreign ministry, English text sourced by that ministry from the UK Government website. Marked check against delivery. Content published under the open etalab-2.0 licence.
This is the finding, and it is a comparison of two documents rather than a judgement. In April, a group of states including Canada stated opposition to any agreement regime restricting passage through the strait. In August, the arrangement in final drafting places large parts of the route inside one country’s territorial waters, closes the existing temporary routes, and runs for a stated two to four months.
No text of the arrangement has been published, and whether a routing through territorial waters constitutes a restriction on transit passage is a question of law with no published resolution. What we can report is that the objection was stated in advance and in public, and that the thing now being drafted is in the same category as the thing objected to.
Macron also noted in the same remarks, in April, that the reopening announced then was “conditional on a route coordinated by the Iranian authorities themselves”. That condition has not changed in the four months since. It has become more specific.
The coalition has not sailed, and the statement says why
The April statement announced that France and the United Kingdom were establishing an independent and strictly defensive multinational mission to protect merchant vessels, reassure commercial operators and conduct mine clearance. It has not deployed.
Before treating that as a failure, read the condition in the text. The statement says the mission would conduct mine clearance operations “as soon as conditions permit following a sustainable ceasefire agreement”, and that partners would work with the shipping industry to resume operations “as soon as conditions permit”.
The mission was conditioned on a ceasefire when it was announced. A ceasefire between Iran and the United States existed in April and Macron welcomed it in those remarks. It did not hold. On the reporting below, both governments subsequently ended the memorandum that underpinned it and strikes resumed. The mission has not sailed into a set of conditions its own founding statement said had to exist first.
The 17 June memorandum is over, and that removes a date
A widely reported deadline does not exist. A memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June was widely reported as providing a 60-day period of free commercial transit, which would have expired on 16 August.
Al Jazeera reports that Iran has enforced a near-total closure of the strait after both Tehran and Washington called an end to the 17 June memorandum and resumed strikes. If that is correct, there is no 60-day clock still running and no 16 August expiry. Neither the memorandum's text nor any official statement of its termination has been published by either government. The position is reported here as Al Jazeera states it and labelled accordingly.
The war itself is dated in the same report. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026. Strikes resumed after the memorandum ended.
The blockade, counted
Most of what is said about the strait is an assertion about intentions. One party published a count.
| United States Central Command, stated Wednesday 5 August | Number |
|---|---|
| Commercial vessels redirected | 48 |
| Vessels disabled | 2 |
| Vessels boarded | 2 |
Measured CENTCOM, 5 August 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera, describing its blockade of the Iranian navy. A cumulative total as at that date, not a rate. The period the total covers is not stated in the report.
CENTCOM has separately stated that the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway.
Two statements, both from parties to the dispute, describing the same water. One says the southern route is free and open. The other, from Iran’s foreign ministry, says the understanding with Oman cannot make the strait secure because the American naval blockade continues. Both can be true at once, because a route can be open to commercial traffic in general while a blockade is applied to a particular navy and to particular cargoes. That is not a contradiction.
What is contradicted
Contradicted Whether the United States is party to these talks.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister has stated that the path of understanding is between Iran and Oman and that no negotiations with the United States have taken place during this period. United States officials, including the President, have said Tehran is keen for a deal to reopen the strait, and the President has said talks are underway whether Iran admits it or not.
These are not reconcilable as complete accounts. Al Jazeera reports separately that United States officials have repeatedly stated they would not accept any arrangement for the waterway that would leave Iran in control, which is a position on the outcome rather than a claim about who is at the table.
What this does to a fuel bill
This is the question this publication exists to ask.
Al Jazeera reports that the resumed strikes have disrupted about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports, and states that this has led to price increases. That is a figure carried by a news organisation rather than a primary series, and it is labelled as such.
Unconfirmed The 20 percent figure and the attribution of price increases to the strikes are Al Jazeera’s, not ours.
What we can say, and it is narrower. Our own front page instrument for Brent crude carries an observation dated 27 July 2026, which is eleven days old at the time of writing.
A price can move on threat alone, through freight rates and war-risk insurance, without a single barrel being lost. That is reasoning, not measurement, and it is the mechanism our earlier work on crude and pump prices examined. Whether it is operating now is not something this article establishes.
Sources and verification
Addresses below are printed in full so you can copy one and check us. We do not link out.
The 51-country statement, the Macron quotation, the terms of the multinational mission and its ceasefire condition. France-UK joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz, Paris, 17 April 2026, published by the French embassy in the United Kingdom. English text sourced by that ministry from the UK Government website. Published under the open etalab-2.0 licence. Read in full 7 August 2026. Confirmed https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/france-uk-joint-statement-strait-hormuz
The Baghaei and Gharibabadi statements, the route description, the CENTCOM counts, the end of the 17 June memorandum, the 28 February start of the war, and the 20 percent export figure. Al Jazeera and Reuters, “Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman in final stages as route approved,” 5 August 2026. Facts stated in our own words, not republished. Quotations from named officials are Confirmed as statements; the underlying arrangement is Unconfirmed. Confirmed https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/5/iran-says-hormuz-talks-with-oman-in-final-stages-as-route-approved